As part of his Independent Research Project at Millersville University, Matt Zak looked at uncertainty in population estimates for endangered animals. The objective of this study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this, Matt reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. He found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Recommendations based on Matt’s research suggest that recovery plans should combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery.
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